In a surprising prediction, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicted that the US would not hit 2005 levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until 2027. The study was surprising as most had expected US emissions would rise every year.
The study assumed that no changes in public policy would occur with respect to GHG emissions. The report concluded that using its assumptions, the emissions that fell 3 percent in 2008 and 7 percent in 2009, largely as a result of the economic recession,energy-related CO2 emissions grow slowly in the due to a combination of modest economic growth, growing use of renewable technologies and fuels, efficiency improvements, slower growth in electricity demand (in part because of the recent recession), and more use of natural gas, which is less carbon-intensive than other fossil fuels.
In the Reference case, which assumes no explicit regulations to limit GHG emissions beyond vehicle GHG standards, energy-related CO2 emissions do not return to 2005 levels (5,996 million metric tons) until 2027, growing by an average of 0.6 percent per year from 2009 to 2027, or a total of 10.6 percent. CO2 emissions then rise by an additional 5 percent from 2027 to 2035, to 6,311 million metric tons in 2035.
