David Victor, a professor at Stanford University and Stanford Law School, has proposed an alternative approach in the negotiations with developing countries for a post-Kyoto treaty to address climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. Mr. Victor submitted his paper to the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements. This project explores potential agreements that could follow the Kyoto Protocol and the economic and policy analysis of different options.
Mr. Victor has proposed Climate Accession Deals, which are agreements with developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in certain sectors. Mr. Victor's paper suggests a new strategy for engaging developing countries, focusing on the concept of Climate Accession Deals (CADs). These deals would take advantage of the fact that there are many large policy shifts that are in these countries' interests and which also, fortuitously, reduce greenhouse gases. Each CAD would include a set of policies that are tailored to gain maximum leverage on a single developing country's emissions, while also aligning with its interests and capabilities so that the initial investments are easily expanded with few incentives for developing countries to abandon the effort once under way. Industrialized countries would support each CAD by providing specific benefits such as financial resources, technology, administrative training, or security guarantees.
Examples of potential Climate Accession Deals that Mr. Victor has proposed would include:
- A CAD for China should focus on carbon emissions from coal, which accounts for 69% of its primary energy system. Recent energy shortages and higher energy prices have caused Chinese officials to initiate programs to decouple economic growth from energy consumption. A CAD could encourage this goal by making new power plants more efficient, encouraging greater use of natural gas and nuclear fuel, improving the efficiency of the electric power grid, and funding research projects on new systems for electric supply. Improved efficiency of the power supply system could save more than 200 million tons of CO2 annually.
- A CAD for India should also seek ways to use coal more efficiently and supplant coal. The greatest opportunity for leverage on India's emissions lies in boosting the efficiency of converting coal to electricity. Other energy sources, include hydro, wind, gas, and nuclear power, could also make a difference at the margin. Improving the country's weak system for power delivery would reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as would expanding access to electricity to reduce particulate emissions from traditional biomass usage.
- In South Africa, a CAD supporting deployment of advanced power plants might save 50–100 million tons of CO2 annually by 2025. A carbon storage scheme might increase that amount another 20 million tons.
- CADs for Brazil and Indonesia should focus on preventing and reversing deforestation. One area of assistance could be the provision of surveillance radar, drones, and helicopters for a much larger police force. Such systems would allow these countries to better use existing personnel to monitor deforestation and regulate illegal logging.
- A CAD for Russia should target flaring of natural gas. Flaring at Russian oil operations releases the equivalent of 175 million tons of CO2 annually.
Mr. Victor may have found a potential policy option as innovation and imagination must be used to break through the developing world's resistance to reducing their greenhouse gases emissions.
